'Conventional' math counts

Small states add up. That's the message for GOP presidential contenders.

How you do in a few big states usually determines whether you win or lose in the presidential elections. But the Republican who gets the party's nomination in 1996 may be helped more by winning in a few smaller states than in one or two big ones. Republican convention rules shrink big states and inflate smaller ones. Example: Wyoming is America's least populous state, California the most. In November, Wyoming casts just 3 electoral votes, 5.5% of California's 54. But at the Republican convention in San Diego in August, 1996, Wyoming will have 20 delegates, 12.2% as many as California's 163.

California has more electoral votes than the eight Intermountain states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah. Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho combined (40). But at the GOP convention, the "Intermountain 8" will have 181 delegates -- 18 more than California.

These smaller states carry more clout in the Republican nominating process because Republican rules give each state six "at large" delegates, plus three delegates for each congressional district. In addition, Republican incentives give one "bonus" delegate for a Republican governor; each Republican U.S. senator; if half or more of the U.S. House delegation are Republicans; and if the GOP controls at least one house of the state legislature.

Most bonus delegates are awarded on the basis of whether a Republican carried the state in the last presidential election. The GOP formula gives 4.5 delegates to each state carried by George Bush, plus a number of delegates equal to 60% of the congressional delegation, rounded to the nearest whole delegate.

This formula means the states most important to win November are not the most important to win in August. In San Diego, North Carolina (58) is more important than Michigan (57); Virginia (53) is more important than New Jersey (48); Arizona (39) and Oklahoma (38) are more important than Massachusetts (37). This reflects the party's tilt to the South and the West.

The importance of the presidential bonus is made clear by the fact that California would have had 36 additional delegates -- as many as Washington State has altogether -- if Bush had won there in 1992.

Because Bush bombed in the Rocky Mountain West the region will have less clout at the Republican's convention in San Diego than at any GOP convention since 1968. The "Intermountain 8" will have 28 fewer delegates in 1996 than they had in 1992. Colorado is the biggest loser, with 10 fewer delegates. Montana lost 8, Nevada and New Mexico 7 each.

In San Diego, Puerto Rico will have as many delegates as Nevada (14), and 2 more than Montana (12).

The-"convention-al" arithmetic will affect how Republican aspirants run for president. The big states will matter less than the media attention they'll receive. For instance, Texas, with its.123 votes, is widely, and properly, thought to give Phil Gramm a significant boost. But Bob Dole can gain 116 votes from his Great Plains base in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and North and South Dakota.

While Democrats allocate convention delegates on the basis of group quotas -- which shows the extent to which special interests have corrupted the world's oldest political party -- the GOP allocates delegates to winners. This makes the West very important to any GOP presidential aspirant.