More than oil at stake in gulf

Where are we headed in the Mideast, and what will be the effect on oil prices? This is the question on the Minds of many today, particularly on the eve of the hastily called summit between President Bush and President Gorbachev in Helsinki, Finland, this weekend.

There is no question that the price of oil hinges very much on whether we go to war in the Mideast - and, if we go to war, whether there is significant damage done to Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity.

At the same time, there is no question that the U.S. and its allies must, by negotiation or the use of force, defeat Saddam Hussein. He must be forced to release the hostages and withdraw from Kuwait.

In addition, his capacity to wage war must be eliminated, either by military actions that cripple his war machine or by international controls, such as United Nations management of his nuclear and chemical production facilities.

Saddam cannot be permitted to emerge from this crisis as the leader of the Arab community, controlling the world's fourth largest army and crucial oil supplies fueling the industrial world.

In addition, if Saddam is permitted to get away with his invasion and annexation of Kuwait, Isreal would soon face new threats to its existence. This would surely draw us into a quagmire.

Today, the U.S. intervention enjoys broad support in the U.N. and among many Arab states. So, it is in the interest of the U.S. to settle this matter cleanly and in the shortest possible time. We cannot tolerate a protracted conflict in the sands of the Mideast.

The Soviets, by contrast, have their own problems, including political disintegration and an economy in shambles. This makes the meeting between the two presidents very interesting. The Soviets have long sought to increase their role in Mideast politics, to get a seat at the table. Moreover, the Soviet Union has serious problems with rapidly growing Muslim populations in its southern republics, where ethnic and nationalist unrest are already rampant.

Hence, the Soviets have an interest in containing the current Mideast crisis in order to keep a lid on Islamic fundamentalism in the USSR.

A lot is at stake this weekend. Bush needs a green light from Gorbachev, who needs stability on his souther flak so attention can be refocused on rebuilding his ailing economy.

If the two superpowers can agree on a course of action, the impact will be felt beyond the price of oil. If Saddam is defeated in the coming weeks, Islamic fundamentalist assaults on western values and institutions, encouraged by Saddam's actions, will be deterred from Morocco to the Philippines.

'This is," Bernard Lewis argues in "The Roots of Muslim Rage" in the current issue of the Atlantic, "no less than a clash of civilizations."

There's a lot more at stake than the price of oil.